Fat Stats is BACK


After our semi-successful Brownlow predictions last year, we promised more regular blog posts for 2017. Turns out we lied to everyone and released nothing between then and now. Unfortunately, and more boringly, our focus been on starting our new company which predicts thing in the mining world and not the sports world. However, things are starting to settle down now and we actually have two big posts coming in the coming month.


Firstly, next week, we will be launching our predictive tipping model AutoTippa, short for AutoAnthonyMcDonald-Tipungwuti.  AutoTippa has been live and spitting out predictions on the hour (sometimes) since Round 8 to a small beta testing group of unreliable gentleman. As the year has gone on its performance has improved to the point where at the time of writing it has correctly tipped 120 out of 180 games – an average of 66% success rate. In a normal year this would be relatively poor, however 2017 is no ordinary year – 120 correct tips place AutoTippa in the top 3% on ESPN’s footytips.com.au and it would currently be sitting equal top on the Squiggle leaderboard.  (Sidenote: anyone interested in tipping, predictive models or just footy should check out squiggle. Its a combination of a heap of different publicly available predictive models and they release some really interesting blog posts. Follow them all!!) Next week’s blog post will break down the machine that is AutoTippa, look into where it has struggled, where is has dominated and map out some plans for 2018.

Sneak Preview: Round 22 Predictions. The further the bar is away from the line, the more confident that AutoTippa is in that team winning. 


Secondly, our Brownlow medal prediction algorithm, now named AutoZerrett, will be running for its 2nd year. The model has been improved (hopefully) and taken into account the learnings and feedback of 2016 as well as the additional of some now publicly available statistics. Similarly to last year, we will release the results of the model and also drill down into them in Brownlow week to see if there is any discrepancies punters can take advantage of.

If anyone would like to sign up for AutoTippa or AutoZerrett updates over the next month please send an email to fatstatspredictions@gmail.com. Feedback, no matter how critical, is also welcomed. We do prefer compliment sandwiches however.

Disclaimer: If you use these models for gambling or other financial decision making, its at your own risk.  You shouldn’t take the word of people on the internet.

All data used in models is from the excellent websites http://www.footywire.com.au and http://www.afltables.com.au and all processing is done in Rstudio.

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