Round 23 Predictions

So we promised a description of AutoTippa’s bones this week, but instead we decided to let the season finish and allow some digital and mental OCD completedness in our analysis. Instead, we are just releasing our predictions for the final round of the year!

Rplot02

The black line is the odds that the bookies have given this team, so an example of how to interpret this would be that the bookies predict Geelong would win this game roughly 53% of the time, while AutoTippa says GWS would win roughly 58% of the time. If you are that way inclined, these differences in modelled versus offered is how people attempt to make money off gambling.

Notes on this week:

GWS and Hawthorn differ from the bookies, Hawthorn especially. Both of these tips pass the gut test for me, especially Hawthorn. Whether Hawthorn should be that far favourite is another question, I predict the game will be close.

In three games, AT predicts it to be closer than the bookies suggest – Essendon, Port Adelaide and Sydney. Adelaide on the other hand is expected to beat West Coast by a lot more than the bookies think.

Its going to be a long off season!! We will continue to attempt to predict the finals, and as previously mentioned release a few longer blog posts over the next month. Go bombers.

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Jobe Watson is back for one of his last games in the black and red, and his inclusion amongst others gives Essendon 77% of their best 22 playing as opposed to 66% last week. Fremantle also improve from 54% to 72% with the return of Lachie Neale et al. 

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