“There is no way Seb Ross is going to get 25 votes” – Most People.

The PDF has been updated to fix a small error in the round by rounds, download here: FatStats AutoZerrett 2017 Predictions V1.3

800px-Sebastian_Ross_2017.2

 

Seb Ross has been the subject of a lot of online debate since the AutoZerrett results were released on Monday.  The St Kilda player has had a break out year, with many tipping the midfielder to take home the Trevor Barker award ahead of last year’s winner Jack Steven. In their summary of St Kilda’s year, Zero Hanger had this to say about Ross:

 

The 24-year-old broke out in 2016 and continued his excellent form this season, playing all 22 games for the second year in a row.

Ross averaged 30 disposals per game this season along with four marks, four tackles and four inside 50s. Impressively, Ross ranked 9th in total effective disposals which speaks volumes of how good his season really was.

He also ranked 9th in the league for total disposals with 657, the second-most of anyone that finished outside the top eight. Should he be able to continue his strong season into 2018, it’ll hold the Saints in good stead going forward”

Not only is Ross an effective and prolific player with ball in hand, he gets his own ball as well, averaging just under 10 contested disposals and 5 clearances per game – traits that are diagnostic of players who poll well on Brownlow day. He played in every game, and St Kilda won 11 games which should be enough to generate a significant amount of votes. Why then, is the common consensus that he will struggle to get over 15 votes (Sportsbet his line at 14.5 votes for reference)? We dig into the AZ results and compare them to AFL Match reports and SEN’s inside footy ratings and comments to have a look.

Seb Ross

To summarise the above table, its possible for Seb Ross to get 25 votes, but unlikely. There appears to be two key games where AZ may have over predicted – round 15 v Fremantle and round 19 versus Port Adelaide (the infamous Ryder to Gray to match winning goal game which will surely stick in the Umpire’s mind). That being said, there are several games where it’s possible AZ underestimated Seb Ross as well – particularly rounds 7 and 22.  Seb has had a great , and consistent year and a vote range for Seb of around 20-23 seems to not be beyond him

Seb Ross Probability.PNGSeb Ross had an amazingly consistent season with only 7 down games – he is a chance in the other 15.

Based on the above, we have included a few possible Sportsbet markets where this information may come in handy. As usual, gamble responsibly, and its just a model  – we take no blame if its wrong:

Simple over and unders: 

SebRoss OU

Seb Ross gets more than Trent Cotchin in every model we ran:

SebRoss_v_Cotchin

Also, some risky risky single game bets (see above table for details):

Round 9 v Sydney:

SebRoss_Round9

Round 12 v Adelaide:

SebRoss_Round12

Round 19 v Port Adelaide: 

SebRoss_Round19

Happy punting!

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